Alabama vs LSU Prediction: Who Comes Out on Top and What to Watch in This Pivotal SEC Showdown

In college football’s Week 11, No. 11 Alabama travels to Death Valley to take on No. 15 LSU in a matchup packed with high stakes for both teams. With playoff hopes hanging in the balance, this game is shaping up to be an elimination round for a shot at one of those coveted College Football Playoff spots. Here’s an in-depth look at our Alabama vs LSU prediction, key factors to watch for, and why this battle will be one for the books.

Why This Game Matters: Alabama vs LSU Showdown in Week 11

alabama vs lsu prediction

Both teams are walking a tightrope in the playoff race. The initial College Football Playoff rankings saw Alabama clinging to a top-12 position, while LSU teeters just outside. A loss here could spell the end of playoff dreams for the season, so expect an intense game where each team will be playing with everything on the line.

What to Watch For in Alabama vs LSU

1. The Run Game

LSU’s ground attack has struggled, sitting at the bottom of the SEC with an average of 115 rushing yards per game. Alabama’s defense has allowed 151 rushing yards on average in SEC games, giving LSU a slight opening. However, LSU’s left guard Garrett Dellinger is out with an ankle injury, making it even harder for the Tigers to establish a strong ground game. Alabama’s defense will look to capitalize on this hole in LSU’s offensive line and keep LSU’s rushing options limited.

2. Quarterback Containment

LSU has struggled with mobile quarterbacks this season, a weak spot Alabama’s Jalen Milroe could exploit. Milroe’s ability to scramble and make plays downfield has kept defenses guessing, but he has also been sacked 11 times in the last four games. LSU’s improved pass rush, which ranks ninth nationally with 28 sacks, will look to exploit this vulnerability. This part of the game will be a battle of will as LSU tries to keep Milroe contained while keeping up the pressure.

3. The Battle at the Line of Scrimmage

LSU’s offensive line has only given up four sacks in eight games, an impressive feat that’s helped them maintain a strong passing game. On the other side, Alabama’s front seven is on the rise, with 18 sacks and 45 tackles for loss this season. This matchup between LSU’s line and Alabama’s defense could be a deciding factor, with the Tigers needing to keep quarterback Garrett Nussmeier protected against an Alabama defense hungry for turnovers.

What the Analytics Say: Alabama’s Odds and Projected Margin

Most prediction models lean towards Alabama as the favorite this week. The College Football Power Index, which simulates games based on team data, gives Alabama a 69.6% chance to win, leaving LSU with a 30.4% probability. The projected margin stands at 7.6 points in Alabama’s favor, reflecting the slight edge analysts see for the Crimson Tide on the road.

Betting Odds

Alabama is favored by 2.5 points according to FanDuel, and the over/under is set at 58.5 points. The odds makers expect a close game with Alabama listed at -138 on the moneyline, while LSU sits at +115.

Alabama vs LSU Prediction: Who Wins?

This one could go either way. Both teams have advantages that counter the other’s weaknesses, making this Alabama vs. LSU prediction a challenging one. Alabama’s Jalen Milroe will be key to any offensive success with his combination of accuracy and mobility, which could exploit LSU’s defenses that have sometimes struggled against mobile QBs. For LSU, their passing game is heavily relied upon, with Nussmeier and his receivers testing Alabama’s back seven. But the absence of Dellinger in the lineup and a less balanced offensive approach could hinder LSU’s overall scoring potential.

Final Score Prediction: Alabama 37, LSU 34

Expect a close game that sees Alabama covering the spread and hitting the over. Ultimately, Alabama’s advantages in the run game and Milroe’s play-making skills will likely give them the edge they need to keep their playoff hopes alive.

How to Watch Alabama vs LSU

  • When: Saturday, Nov. 9
  • Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: ABC

This SEC showdown is set to be a thrilling clash. Alabama and LSU fans alike will be glued to their screens to see which team will emerge victorious and keep their playoff aspirations intact.

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